The vigorous development of China's shared e-bike in 2020 has driven the rapid growth of China's lithium-ion two-wheelers. According to statistics, the total output of lithium-ion two-wheelers in 2020 is about 10.25 million, and the overall lithium-ion two-wheelers penetration rate is 27%.
Shared e-bikes have problems such as policy risks and long cycles, and lack of stable growth factors. The main market and important market for lithium-ion two-wheelers is still the e-bike manufacturer market for to C users, and its current penetration rate is 16.2%.
In 2020, China's electric two-wheel lithium battery shipments is about 10GWh, an increase of 76.4% year-on-year. The main reasons for the rapid growth are:
1) The demand for the battery sharing market and the battery exchange market has exploded;
2) Model 482X gradually replaced model 4812 as the mainstream battery pack, increasing the capacity of a single battery pack.
Through the combing of the two-wheelers lithium battery industry, combined with research data and information, ten predictions for the two-wheelers lithium battery industry in 2021 are made:
1) With the tightening of supervision and the advent of the wave of two-wheeler replacements, it will really drive the explosion of the lithium battery market for two-wheelers. The real penetration rate of lithium-ion two-wheelers on to C users will increase rapidly, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 23% in 2021.
2) From a nationwide perspective, the development of shared e-bikes and e-motorcycles has obvious regional characteristics. Among them, the development enthusiasm and vitality of third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities are much higher than those of first- and second-tier cities. The shared market has problems such as policy risks and long cyclicality, and lacks stable growth factors. It is expected that local policies will gradually become clear and perfect in 2021, and the demand for lithium batteries in the shared market will slow down.
3) It is expected that in 2021, more and more lithium battery manufacturers will participate in price war competition, which will bring high growth after cost dividends in the short term.
4) In 2021, manganese lithium batteries will still be the mainstream, but in mid-to-high-end products such as electric light motorcycles and electric motorcycles, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary batteries will continue to compete.
5) From 2019 to 2020, lithium battery manufacturers have entered the electric two-wheeler market. However, with product prices and the resistance of established two-wheeler battery manufacturers, some companies have been blocked and their promotion is unfavorable. However, the overseas e-bike market has high gross profit and the growth of the market space has brought direction to many new entrants. It is expected that the overseas market will become the chasing market of many companies in 2021.
6) With strong demand in 2021, it is expected that more two-wheeled vehicle lithium battery manufacturers will apply for listing or raise funds in the primary market to expand production capacity and enhance their competitiveness.
7) In 2021, the channel market will become a new breakthrough for two-wheeled vehicle lithium battery manufacturers. At the same time, lithium battery manufacturers will increase the construction of battery after-sales and service outlets. Brand promotion on the C side will also be a key measure.
8) With the development and breakthrough of lithium battery technology and the gradual maturity of the battery exchange market, the space for battery exchange services on the C side will gradually open. The smooth advancement of battery exchange services on the B side in 2021 will extend the battery exchange services to the C side.
9) Regardless of whether it is the e-bike manufacturer market or the battery exchange market, the standardization of lithium battery is very important. With the promotion of relevant policies and industry-wide enterprises, the standardization process of lithium battery is expected to be completed in 2021, and lithium battery model standardization of groups will also tend to be unified.
10) For a long time, lithium batteries for overseas E-bike are mainly Japanese and Korean battery cells, and their prices are 50% to 80% higher than those in China. After long-term testing and certification by overseas e-bike manufacturing companies, China's lithium battery cells will accelerate their introduction into the supply chain. At the same time, China's lithium battery industry chain is complete and its cost advantage is reflected, and its overseas share will continue to increase.
WinAck is a high-tech company. With many years of manufacturing experience in the lithium battery pack assembly and production industry, our battery pack assembly machine and battery test system have been widely used in the production and testing of e-bike lithium battery packs. Welcome to contact us.
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